Eclipses and the Economy: Do Lunar and Solar Events Influence Markets, Crime, and Society?
Eclipses—both lunar and solar—have long fascinated humanity, not only for their celestial grandeur but also for their purported influence on human behavior and societal events. This article delves into the historical data to explore correlations between these astronomical events and various earthly phenomena, including stock market performance, crime rates, and traffic accidents.
Stock Market Performance During Eclipses
Solar Eclipses:
Historical analyses suggest a nuanced relationship between solar eclipses and stock market behavior:
Positive Annual Returns: Data indicates that in 10 of the last 13 total solar eclipse years since 1900, the Dow Jones Industrial Average concluded the year with gains. Notably, in 1954, the Dow surged by 44% during an eclipse year.
Green Periods: Research from LunaticTrader reveals that investing during "eclipse green periods"—times surrounding solar eclipses—yielded an annualized return of 17%, compared to 11% during other periods.
Lunar Eclipses:
The impact of lunar eclipses on financial markets is less definitive:
Increased Anxiety: Some studies propose that lunar eclipses may heighten investor anxiety and risk aversion, potentially leading to lower stock returns. For instance, a study published in the Journal of Behavioral Finance in 2013 found that stock market returns were significantly lower in the month following a lunar eclipse, attributing this to increased investor anxiety and risk aversion during periods of celestial events.
Contradictory Findings: Other research, however, disputes these claims, suggesting no significant correlation between lunar phases and stock performance.
Crime Rates and Eclipses
The notion that lunar phases influence human behavior, particularly criminal activity, has been a topic of debate:
Law Enforcement Observations: Some police departments have reported increases in violent incidents during full moons. For example, in 2007, senior police officers in Brighton, UK, noted a rise in violent crime during full moons and planned to deploy more officers during these periods. Similarly, police in Ohio and Kentucky have blamed temporary rises in crime on the full moon.
Empirical Studies: Comprehensive analyses have yielded mixed results. While certain studies report a correlation between lunar phases and increased crime rates, others find no significant association, suggesting that perceived links may be anecdotal or influenced by confirmation bias.
Traffic Accidents During Eclipses
Solar eclipses, due to their rarity and the public's fascination, can lead to unique challenges on roadways:
Increased Fatalities: A study analyzing the 2017 total solar eclipse in the U.S. found a 31% increase in fatal car crashes during the event compared to surrounding periods. This surge equated to one additional vehicle crash every 25 minutes and one extra fatality every 95 minutes.
Contributing Factors: The spike in accidents is attributed to factors such as driver distraction from observing the eclipse, increased traffic volume from individuals traveling to optimal viewing locations, and sudden changes in lighting conditions affecting visibility.
Other Pertinent Occurrences During Eclipses
Beyond financial markets, crime, and traffic incidents, eclipses have been associated with various societal and behavioral phenomena:
Psychological Effects: Eclipses can evoke strong emotional responses, ranging from awe to apprehension, potentially influencing collective mood and behavior.
Cultural Significance: Historically, eclipses have been viewed as omens or significant events in many cultures, sometimes leading to societal or ritualistic responses.
In conclusion, while eclipses captivate our imagination and have been linked to various earthly events, establishing direct causal relationships remains challenging. Observed correlations, such as those between eclipses and stock market performance or traffic accidents, may result from a combination of psychological, cultural, and situational factors. As with many phenomena, distinguishing between correlation and causation is crucial, and further research is necessary to unravel these complex interactions.
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Don’t Miss the March 24th Edition of Buy Hold Sell
Mark your calendars for a special episode of Buy Hold Sell on March 24th! Host Todd M. Schoenberger sits down with Henry Weingarten, Managing Partner at The Astrologers Fund Inc., and Kimberly Ferris, an Ivy-League lawyer and President of The Legal Medium. They’ll dive into the intersection of astrology, finance, and the law—discussing market predictions, celestial influences on investing, and legal insights shaping the business world. Catch it on BTT and major podcast platforms!
